Like Many Housing Metrics, Builder Confidence is Just Waiting For Lower Rates

Historically low interest rates may not have guaranteed historically high levels of housing activity, but exceptionally high rates have definitely muted activity in a measurable way.  We've cataloged this incessantly when it comes to refinance activity, but there's a correlation with home sales as well.  The Housing Market Index (HMI) from the National Association of Homebuilders is just another way to see it. A de facto measurement of builder confidence/sentiment, the HMI had been flying high (all time highs, actually) shortly after the initial covid lockdowns.  At the time, rates were at all-time lows and pent-up buying demand was being unleashed.  Notably, that level of confidence was achieved despite housing starts only being about 2/3rds of their 2005 peak. Just as notab